The paycheck
Using the 3.3%–4% range, $1.5 million produces $49,500 to $60,000 in the first year, about $4,125 to $5,000 a month.
Add the average couple's 2027 Social Security of about $40,260 a year and you're near $100,260 before taxes. That's a comfortable retirement in most of New Jersey.
The tax problem nobody shows you
If most of it sits in a traditional IRA or 401(k), every dollar out is taxable income. At 73, the IRS forces withdrawals whether you need them or not. On $1.5 million, the first required withdrawal is about $56,604, and the balance may well be bigger by then.
Stack that on Social Security and a pension, and you can cross the Medicare surcharge line (in 2026, IRMAA starts when a couple's income from two years earlier tops $218,000) or lose New Jersey's pension exclusion, which disappears completely above $150,000 of income.
The window to fix it
The years between retiring and 73 are usually your lowest-tax years. That's when partial Roth conversions or planned IRA withdrawals can shrink future RMDs.
Done carelessly, conversions can trigger the same surcharges you're trying to avoid. It's a few-years plan, not a one-time move.