How Long Will Your Retirement Savings Last? For This Couple, Two Bad Years Cost Seven.

Here's a number that should bother you: 58% of retirees say they don't know how long their savings will last, according to Schroders' 2026 U.S. Retirement Survey. In the same survey, running out of money ranks among retirees' five biggest worries.

So let's answer it. Not with a rule of thumb, but with one couple, one calculator and three what-ifs.

Meet the couple

Picture a Central Jersey couple, both 67, just retired. (They're an illustration, not real people.)

• Savings: $800,000 in IRAs and 401(k)s
• Social Security: $40,260 a year, the average for a retired couple after the 2027 raise
• Spending: $80,000 a year after taxes

Social Security covers about half. The other half comes from savings. After setting aside about 15% for taxes, they need to pull about $46,750 in year one, or 5.8% of their nest egg.

We ran them through our retirement calculator, assuming 5% average returns and 3% inflation, with spending and Social Security both rising every year.

The answer: age 87

At that pace, their savings run dry at 87. After that, they'd live on Social Security alone.

That may sound OK, until you remember that a 67-year-old couple has a real chance that at least one of them lives into their 90s. Now let's see what moves the number.

What-if #1: Two bad years right away

Same couple, same plan. But the market drops 15% in each of their first two years of retirement, then goes back to normal.

Their money now runs out at 80. Two bad years cost them seven years.

That's not a typo. Losses early in retirement hurt far more than the same losses later, because you're selling investments while they're down to pay the bills. We wrote about this bad-beginning problem last month.

What-if #2: A little more spending

Bump spending from $80,000 to $90,000 a year (a new roof, more travel, helping the kids) and the money runs out at 82 instead of 87.

What-if #3: Hotter inflation

If inflation averages 4% instead of 3%, their savings last to 85. Inflation is quiet, but it's a two-year haircut.

The fix: about $790 a month

What would it take for their money to last to 95? Our calculator says they can spend $70,500 a year instead of $80,000. That's about $790 a month less.

If they want to be ready for two bad years at the start, the safe number drops to $60,500. That's why a lot of planners suggest a flexible budget: spend a bit more in good years, pull back in bad ones.

Five moves that buy you years

1. Keep a year or two of spending in cash so you never have to sell after a crash.
2. Have a "bad year" budget ready before you need it. Know which $500 to $1,000 a month you'd cut.
3. Wait to claim Social Security if you can. Each year past full retirement age, up to 70, raises your check for life.
4. Watch your withdrawal rate. Pulling much more than 4% to 5% a year early in retirement leaves little room for bad luck.
5. Run your own numbers once a year. It takes five minutes.

Try the Second Act 360 retirement calculator with your own savings, spending and Social Security, and switch on the "bad first two years" test.

Quick answers

How long will $800,000 last in retirement? In our example, with average Social Security and $80,000 a year of spending, until about 87. Spend $70,500 and it lasts to 95.

What's the biggest risk to how long savings last? Bad market years right after you retire, because you're withdrawing while prices are down.

Is the 4% rule still useful? As a starting point, yes. Your Social Security, taxes, spending and timing matter more than any single rule.

Want a second set of eyes on your plan? Join our Retirement Webinar: Setting the Stage for 2027, or talk with an advisor.

Sources: Schroders, 2026 US Retirement Survey (May 19, 2026); Social Security Administration, 2027 COLA fact sheet (average aged couple, $3,355 a month). The example uses the Second Act 360 retirement calculator: both 67, $800,000 saved, Social Security from 67, 5% level returns, 3% inflation, a flat 15% tax on withdrawals, and two −15% years for the bad-start test. It's a simplified illustration. Real markets don't move in straight lines, and your results will differ. Checked November 2, 2026. This is general information, not investment advice.